Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.669112 3.654841 5.057823 7.272121 1.082094e+01 1.655961e+01 27.176779
2025-02-16 1.780682 2.814343 4.597691 8.159212 1.585477e+01 3.403947e+01 90.726963
2025-02-23 1.183318 2.076502 3.859888 8.181463 2.043067e+01 6.337766e+01 325.627227
2025-03-02 0.800832 1.521956 3.137278 7.742105 2.449576e+01 1.137250e+02 1515.645453
2025-03-09 0.618588 1.275650 2.937509 8.624039 3.680965e+01 3.155093e+02 46973.418771
2025-03-16 0.484108 1.069897 2.717348 9.399165 5.505832e+01 1.079287e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.394796 0.931209 2.602891 10.679103 9.075867e+01 6.973373e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.324911 0.810706 2.469057 11.917584 1.517342e+02 1.520881e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.256410 0.662985 2.135176 11.518012 2.001544e+02 3.400174e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.202468 0.537222 1.803141 10.591489 2.389541e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.172964 0.476842 1.703531 11.436839 4.078007e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.154395 0.444804 1.710533 13.558754 9.486886e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.138837 0.419325 1.749252 16.852810 3.231723e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.120955 0.377587 1.669920 18.662078 9.883754e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.102242 0.325117 1.486401 18.133062 2.060350e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.085745 0.275618 1.285049 16.529690 3.250916e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.076784 0.253653 1.243642 18.404741 2.653263e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.068748 0.232496 1.191086 20.029863 1.004067e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.062727 0.217793 1.173117 22.978156 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057225 0.203326 1.145251 25.866142 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050446 0.180656 1.033387 24.553161 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044176 0.158596 0.911636 22.013658 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040637 0.148436 0.882945 23.941275 NaN NaN NaN